From then on, using age-at-death data of marine mammals at some of their full potential was impossible. In this article, we provide a new Bayesian regression modeling framework to evidence temporal changes in marine mammal populations survival rates. The model is available with Stan code and is fully reproducible (supplementary material and Github link in the publication).

This work can help conservation biology by providing clear demographical evidence of a decline in survival. Since several marine mammal populations can not be monitored longitudinally, age-at-death data remain the only demographic source of information for these populations. By quantifying decline in their survival over time, it is possible to enforce management decisions before a population depletion occurs. How to use it? You have to provide your age-at-death data to the model and the associated timescale. Then, you will obtain several parameter posteriors. Finally you have to use these posteriors in the associated functions to estimate various survival parameters and their evolution according to time. In case you have any question or you need help with the methodology, please contact me at : etienne.rouby@whoi.edu with the subject: Query for age-at-death analysis. Link to the publication : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110647